iPhone 5 delay comes as Apple phone share grows, Android makers mixed

“Is the iPhone 5 going to be a huge upgrade as opposed to a 3GS-like move?” That question is one the minds of those attempting to decide whether to wait for the iPhone 5 or dive in now on the newly rejuvenated iPhone 4 every bit as much as the question of when the iPhone 5 will see its release date. Common sense says that if the iPhone 5 were indeed just a rehash of the current iPhone, it would have easily been on track for June release and there wouldn’t be any need for this newly surfaced white iPhone 4 in the mean time. So the fact that the iPhone 5 is apparently coming later means Apple is indeed working on a major overhaul and simply needs more time. But while widespread speculation is that Apple is feeling pressure to pull a rabbit out of its hat with the iPhone 5 in order to compete with the growing Android threat, newly released marketshare numbers suggest otherwise.

Android OS activation numbers seem to point to the Android platform growing and overtaking the iPhone, with the latter supposedly getting its own backside handed to it. But those numbers are never verified, and in fact the Android overlords seem to be going out of their way to collectively ensure that no accurate headcount of Android phone users can be derived. Instead, unverified activation claims (which Apple has pointed out may well include re-activations) and nonsensical preference surveys of hard core technology geeks are what most often get quoted as if they were fact. And yet the latest hardware marketshare numbers paint a different story.

Even without the iPhone 5 having so much as a release date, and even with the new white iPhone 4 surely not factored in, Apple’s phone marketshare is growing. HTC, which manufactures Android phones, is also growing. But Samsung and Motorola, which also manufacture Android phones, are in decline. That doesn’t mean that their Android phone sales are in decline specifically, as those companies also make non-Android phones. But it very much paints a mixed bag in terms of Android hardware trajectory, while the fact that Apple is the only iPhone/iOS hardware manufacturer makes it unmistakably clear that the iPhone platform is growing. Interestingly, the Verizon iPhone 4 is thought to be taking business most directly away from the Verizon Droid, which is manufactured by Motorola – so it’s no surprise to see that particular manufacturer in decline. It’s also noteworthy that the one major Android manufacturer still growing, HTC, specializes in Android phones for Sprint and T-Mobile, two carriers in which the iPhone has yet to begin competing. What kind of an iPhone 5 on either or both of those carriers would have on HTC’s hardware sales is the stuff of future numbers.

In the mean time, even as Android proponents declare that their platform has won the smartphone wars based on unverifiable numbers, Apple appears to be more than holding its own even amid the growing variety of Android-based models on the market. It would appear that carrier expansion holds the key to Apple continuing to deal effectively with the Android threat, and in that regard the iPhone 5 is a wildcard with future impact unknown. Here’s more on the iPhone 5.