Friday, April 1, 2011

If Windows Phone is No. 2 by 2015, I'll kiss Steve Ballmer's feet

Now here's something you don't see everyday, an analyst firm predicting that Microsoft's mobile operating system will trump Apple iOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry. Don't believe it. I surely don't, and with good reasons.

The skinny: Today IDC predicted that by 2015, Windows Phone 7 and Mobile would reach 20.9 percent global market share, as measured by shipments, on smartphones -- up from 5.5 percent this year. By comparison, iOS share is predicted to be nearly flat over four years, with smartphone OS share of 15.3 percent in 2015. IDC predicts Android will grow to 45.4 percent from 39.5 percent.

"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," Ramon Llamas, IDC senior research analyst, said in a statement. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

What is Llamas smoking? IDC is giving a whole lot of weight to Nokia's Windows Phone distribution agreement with Microsoft. It's a deal that won't bring new phones to market until 2012 and faces huge logistical hurdles. The change in primary mobile operating systems will disrupt Nokia's relationships with carriers, customers, developers and distribution partners. Apparently, IDC has bought into Microsoft's reasoning it can buy market share not easily generated organically.

Read more: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/If-Windows-Phone-is-No-2-by-2015-Ill-kiss-Steve-Ballmers-feet/1301423365

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